* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082015 09/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 58 53 47 40 32 27 25 25 28 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 58 53 47 40 32 27 25 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 50 48 45 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 14 11 10 2 7 16 27 46 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 1 3 7 4 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 225 220 220 199 200 260 269 268 268 272 286 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.6 24.1 17.0 13.8 16.2 15.2 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 130 130 136 134 102 76 73 77 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 112 109 111 116 116 90 72 70 73 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -56.0 -56.3 -56.5 -55.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 47 49 50 55 62 64 59 55 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 12 10 10 10 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -21 -18 -26 -24 -35 -2 24 -14 -65 -46 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -11 8 -4 2 16 15 38 45 7 -5 -14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 3 11 11 8 8 36 52 14 1 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1450 1421 1376 1287 1194 938 690 455 199 595 1233 1258 665 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.5 33.3 35.8 39.0 42.3 45.0 46.9 47.8 47.7 47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.9 61.0 61.0 61.1 61.2 61.0 59.7 57.2 52.3 45.0 36.3 26.5 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 9 10 14 18 20 24 28 31 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 13 10 8 11 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. -1. -11. -22. -28. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -4. -7. -9. -10. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 28. 23. 17. 10. 2. -3. -5. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.7 60.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.83 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 9.9% 12.2% Logistic: 2.7% 4.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 1.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.9% 3.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 EIGHT 09/09/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 41 45 49 58 53 47 40 32 27 25 25 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 43 47 56 51 45 38 30 25 23 23 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 38 42 51 46 40 33 25 20 18 18 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 34 43 38 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT