* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 25 23 21 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 261 272 278 277 260 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 143 145 146 151 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 143 145 146 151 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 43 45 45 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -21 -23 -25 -35 -31 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 21 12 -12 -16 -11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -10 -4 0 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1145 1086 1045 951 804 608 466 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 49.9 51.6 53.4 55.1 58.5 61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 22 19 22 26 62 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 42. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 48.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/09/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 42 43 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 27 28 29 30 34 37 40 41 43 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 32 35 38 39 41 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 18 20 21 22 23 27 30 33 34 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT