* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 93 84 75 60 47 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 100 93 84 75 60 47 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 99 90 79 70 55 45 38 32 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 10 11 11 16 15 15 21 21 25 31 35 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -6 -6 -4 0 0 5 9 3 0 -2 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 82 109 147 163 243 234 256 220 243 249 257 248 239 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.7 25.0 24.0 23.4 23.3 23.6 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 113 102 96 94 96 95 93 93 97 99 100 101 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 -49.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 -49.7 -50.2 -50.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 67 67 64 61 54 51 46 41 36 31 29 25 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 31 30 30 27 24 21 19 16 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 59 50 52 44 42 51 52 44 23 19 9 31 37 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 35 -3 -2 10 13 8 16 -5 4 -14 0 2 -23 -38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 0 -5 0 3 6 3 3 2 0 -1 -6 -7 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 413 417 443 423 411 421 487 574 635 715 789 882 946 1018 1104 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.0 26.1 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.9 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.8 119.8 120.8 121.8 122.7 123.6 124.6 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -10. -15. -25. -34. -43. -50. -57. -63. -68. -71. -73. -77. -80. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -21. -30. -45. -58. -71. -82. -92.-100.-107.-113.-118.-121.-121.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.3 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##