* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 36 33 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 36 33 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 37 35 31 29 28 26 22 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 34 35 32 41 37 42 42 43 22 32 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 1 1 -3 1 4 1 -4 -4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 270 282 283 281 279 285 285 313 333 306 204 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.6 26.4 25.5 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 123 124 130 134 135 137 138 138 128 119 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 46 49 54 55 55 54 58 65 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 15 13 12 15 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 -13 -18 -16 -24 -12 5 11 24 64 166 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -13 -13 -8 3 -9 23 -11 -34 -24 62 51 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -6 -12 -12 -6 -4 -6 0 16 29 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 640 585 536 481 436 342 321 357 421 501 686 980 1274 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.5 26.0 27.4 29.7 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.5 154.4 155.2 156.0 156.9 158.5 159.8 160.9 161.7 162.4 163.4 164.9 166.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 7 5 4 4 6 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 0 0 5 10 14 20 21 17 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -7. -16. -27. -38. -44. -46. -51. -54. -58. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -10. -14. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -19. -30. -43. -52. -53. -58. -62. -65. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.1 153.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##