* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 105 101 95 81 65 51 39 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 105 105 101 95 81 65 51 39 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 104 101 94 85 68 54 44 37 32 28 24 21 19 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 9 10 6 8 11 13 11 12 14 16 19 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 2 4 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 89 104 116 136 166 239 221 245 245 260 248 269 252 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.2 26.6 25.9 25.5 23.8 23.2 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.7 23.9 23.9 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 136 129 122 118 100 93 97 95 94 93 97 98 98 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 74 70 67 61 55 50 47 45 41 38 33 29 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 29 28 27 24 20 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 73 62 48 32 42 35 42 30 24 1 1 -4 7 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 67 77 56 13 13 4 -9 -7 -5 1 -21 -12 -13 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 0 0 -1 4 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 445 418 379 371 389 394 412 474 567 649 715 803 882 921 963 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.8 25.8 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.3 115.9 117.2 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.7 122.7 123.7 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -24. -33. -41. -47. -53. -58. -61. -64. -68. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 1. -5. -19. -35. -49. -61. -70. -78. -83. -88. -90. -94. -94. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.7 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.8% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.6% 11.1% 3.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.1% 10.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##