* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 32 31 31 31 33 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 47 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 32 31 31 31 33 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 26 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 20 22 24 25 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 6 4 1 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 242 240 244 253 271 281 268 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.1 28.9 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 136 136 136 142 141 152 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 136 136 136 142 141 152 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 44 45 43 47 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 2 -2 -8 -24 -22 -26 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -9 3 9 5 36 7 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 -8 -4 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1530 1425 1323 1228 1108 944 698 599 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.1 41.8 43.4 45.1 46.8 50.1 53.6 57.1 60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 20 26 30 22 21 43 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 40.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.1% 6.6% 5.0% 4.3% 6.5% 5.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 5.2% 2.8% 3.4% 2.3% 4.9% 3.8% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.2% 3.8% 3.1% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/08/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 32 31 31 31 33 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 47 18HR AGO 35 34 32 32 31 31 31 33 32 34 35 38 41 44 45 47 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 30 32 31 33 34 37 40 43 44 46 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 26 25 27 28 31 34 37 38 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT