* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 98 100 99 91 79 69 59 50 43 35 31 28 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 90 96 98 100 99 91 79 69 59 50 43 35 31 28 26 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 99 98 95 83 68 56 47 41 37 32 29 27 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 13 12 13 12 10 8 10 5 10 7 8 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -7 -5 -5 -1 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 62 94 109 115 121 111 136 172 191 220 220 214 242 257 279 296 271 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.0 25.7 24.7 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 147 140 133 119 109 99 99 100 101 102 102 103 106 107 107 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 80 77 77 75 69 66 61 57 50 45 40 38 35 31 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 29 28 29 26 25 23 21 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 58 59 76 56 47 27 30 20 30 23 31 21 6 0 -5 200 MB DIV 105 123 111 101 82 18 -8 7 3 7 7 -7 -7 -18 1 -14 -9 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 -1 -1 0 -2 5 1 3 0 1 3 0 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 615 561 530 527 490 447 462 428 462 539 626 710 803 880 948 1008 1063 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.1 22.5 23.7 24.8 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.3 114.9 115.9 116.8 117.7 118.8 119.9 120.9 121.8 122.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -18. -25. -31. -35. -39. -42. -45. -48. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 10. 9. 1. -11. -21. -31. -40. -47. -55. -59. -62. -64. -65. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.8 112.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.1% 26.8% 22.8% 17.9% 12.8% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.9% 20.7% 6.8% 5.4% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 18.6% 3.7% 3.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.2% 17.1% 11.0% 8.3% 5.4% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##