* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 42 41 39 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 42 41 39 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 40 37 33 29 26 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 23 27 26 30 38 39 42 44 48 42 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 2 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 275 278 276 275 271 289 290 287 281 276 266 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 25.5 25.3 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 123 123 124 125 117 114 118 117 118 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 47 48 52 57 58 60 62 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 20 17 15 13 12 12 12 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -5 -7 -12 -13 -24 -33 -32 -19 -14 0 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -38 -38 -31 -9 -2 4 -8 10 16 5 20 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -6 -7 -6 -6 -5 -2 -1 4 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 852 825 803 767 736 671 605 559 553 583 666 783 908 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.9 28.6 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.1 150.8 151.5 152.3 153.1 154.8 156.5 158.0 159.3 160.5 161.7 162.9 164.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -22. -33. -44. -49. -54. -57. -61. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -16. -16. -16. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -11. -21. -32. -41. -50. -54. -61. -64. -68. -72. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.2 150.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##