* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 46 45 44 43 44 45 47 47 47 48 50 51 54 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 46 45 44 43 44 45 47 47 47 48 47 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 45 43 40 37 35 33 32 31 30 28 28 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 10 13 17 16 17 17 23 21 18 26 34 31 21 16 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 11 10 11 7 5 4 3 5 3 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 273 261 260 261 252 257 247 261 267 254 256 253 265 274 291 320 342 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 137 137 139 135 136 140 149 151 158 154 159 161 159 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 133 137 137 139 135 135 139 148 150 155 149 153 154 151 163 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 14 15 15 15 14 700-500 MB RH 48 46 43 43 46 45 48 44 45 42 45 45 48 48 50 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 11 9 9 8 7 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 18 15 13 7 5 -17 -10 -22 -16 -24 -24 -24 -22 -33 -26 200 MB DIV -4 -13 -12 0 16 20 11 23 3 2 -4 13 12 19 0 -10 -6 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -11 -11 -5 0 -5 -8 -7 -5 -3 -5 -1 -2 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 1688 1848 1894 1847 1730 1515 1333 1207 1128 885 717 579 309 62 32 -15 -22 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.1 34.6 36.1 37.6 39.1 42.2 45.4 48.6 51.7 54.8 57.7 60.4 62.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 12 14 13 13 24 32 20 29 48 56 46 52 70 69 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 33.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.4% 9.8% 7.3% 6.5% 9.2% 10.6% 9.5% Logistic: 5.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% 2.4% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.7% 6.4% 5.5% 3.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 46 46 45 44 43 44 45 47 47 47 48 47 39 32 18HR AGO 45 44 45 44 44 43 42 41 42 43 45 45 45 46 45 37 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 39 38 37 38 39 41 41 41 42 41 33 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 33 32 33 34 36 36 36 37 36 28 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT