* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 59 69 78 86 98 101 95 85 74 65 57 53 49 44 40 36 V (KT) LAND 50 59 69 78 86 98 101 95 85 74 65 57 53 49 44 40 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 59 69 77 85 97 98 89 80 69 60 53 47 43 39 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 7 11 9 15 12 9 11 11 14 14 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -7 -7 -4 -2 0 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 15 30 43 62 82 141 113 134 119 142 153 171 204 215 218 212 218 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 164 162 157 142 134 130 124 113 109 110 107 108 106 105 105 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 85 85 85 84 82 77 74 67 64 62 57 51 48 44 42 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 21 22 25 26 26 24 23 21 20 19 17 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 28 22 27 46 62 62 55 33 24 17 22 26 26 44 64 200 MB DIV 105 117 113 86 103 120 83 39 22 16 1 10 4 2 0 -8 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 -1 0 1 -1 0 2 4 4 3 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 726 719 729 691 628 584 578 557 598 642 677 751 850 962 1071 1153 1201 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.8 19.3 20.4 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.4 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.1 110.9 111.7 112.6 114.1 115.3 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.1 121.5 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 33 21 6 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 19. 28. 37. 48. 51. 45. 35. 24. 15. 7. 3. -1. -6. -10. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 16.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 10.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 12.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 12.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -21.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.93 -12.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 73% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.3% 85.8% 69.5% 61.1% 42.6% 72.6% 59.2% 18.0% Logistic: 48.5% 81.7% 65.1% 55.2% 51.0% 64.0% 43.8% 5.7% Bayesian: 59.9% 82.4% 86.5% 81.5% 33.9% 82.9% 23.2% 0.2% Consensus: 51.6% 83.3% 73.7% 65.9% 42.5% 73.2% 42.1% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##