* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 39 38 36 32 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 39 38 36 32 26 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 37 35 31 28 26 25 24 23 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 17 19 19 17 21 33 34 37 37 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 0 7 -1 -2 -1 2 -2 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 271 271 279 282 269 266 277 288 276 287 296 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.2 26.8 27.5 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 123 122 121 125 125 127 124 130 137 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 54 54 53 52 55 57 53 54 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 26 25 23 20 18 18 19 19 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 24 9 5 1 -4 1 1 6 11 19 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 5 -13 -32 -29 -28 0 -6 26 -14 -18 2 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 9 4 5 5 -7 -5 -9 -6 -9 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 883 869 860 833 809 738 654 569 503 450 444 468 521 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.1 148.7 149.3 150.0 150.6 152.0 153.6 155.3 157.0 158.5 159.9 161.1 162.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 7 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -20. -27. -30. -33. -35. -37. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -14. -12. -13. -10. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. -19. -25. -28. -34. -35. -41. -42. -42. -43. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.5 148.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##