* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 47 46 46 45 44 46 49 49 49 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 47 46 46 45 44 46 49 49 49 51 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 49 47 44 40 37 34 33 32 32 32 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 10 16 22 23 19 22 23 18 20 23 25 18 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 7 1 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 232 229 245 254 264 263 250 252 256 258 259 260 256 264 258 259 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 144 139 138 138 137 136 134 138 140 146 154 151 155 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 144 139 137 136 135 134 131 135 137 143 150 146 150 150 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 14 13 14 13 14 700-500 MB RH 51 48 49 47 46 47 45 50 47 50 48 51 47 51 52 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 21 21 23 18 12 5 -14 -16 -19 -13 -20 -17 -22 -34 -37 200 MB DIV -1 12 -3 -4 4 7 26 20 15 -17 -1 0 4 0 35 1 0 700-850 TADV 4 3 -2 0 -3 -8 -1 2 -5 -6 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1415 1557 1699 1848 1897 1764 1571 1409 1264 1174 1109 917 755 677 518 269 36 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.8 33.2 34.6 36.0 38.6 41.3 43.9 46.5 49.1 51.6 54.1 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 16 17 16 14 11 28 28 24 20 27 38 57 52 50 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 30.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 369.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.8% 11.3% 8.3% 7.6% 9.8% 10.8% 9.8% Logistic: 3.3% 8.8% 8.1% 6.6% 1.9% 3.8% 1.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.2% 6.8% 5.0% 3.2% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 49 47 46 46 45 44 46 49 49 49 51 52 53 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 47 45 44 44 43 42 44 47 47 47 49 50 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 40 39 39 38 37 39 42 42 42 44 45 46 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 32 32 31 30 32 35 35 35 37 38 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT