* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 44 49 52 53 51 49 49 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 44 49 52 53 51 49 49 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 42 42 42 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 17 9 14 18 21 21 24 18 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -5 -5 -6 -3 -5 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 349 1 14 6 269 275 278 280 278 293 302 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 134 134 128 123 122 123 119 120 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 120 119 118 115 108 103 101 102 98 100 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 54 54 52 47 46 45 47 47 46 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -28 -21 -29 -39 -53 -59 -78 -89 -65 -36 -37 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 12 5 -11 3 6 -4 9 1 -4 -40 -15 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -6 0 1 4 7 2 2 -2 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2455 2485 2418 2361 2306 2231 2194 2190 2124 2016 1926 1844 1753 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.8 30.9 31.7 32.2 32.3 32.2 31.7 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.1 42.8 42.4 41.7 41.0 39.3 37.9 36.6 35.4 34.1 33.1 32.4 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 9 7 7 5 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 16 10 9 9 8 3 3 5 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.2 43.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.1% 5.8% 4.1% 3.1% 6.1% 6.5% 6.6% Logistic: 0.9% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.6% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 38 44 49 52 53 51 49 49 49 49 50 51 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 47 50 51 49 47 47 47 47 48 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 43 46 47 45 43 43 43 43 44 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 36 39 40 38 36 36 36 36 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT