* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 45 44 41 39 34 28 27 22 18 17 17 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 46 45 44 41 39 34 28 27 22 18 17 17 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 39 34 31 28 26 24 23 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 26 18 19 18 21 23 30 30 36 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 1 4 4 4 7 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 266 267 265 274 280 273 284 286 292 286 298 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 128 128 129 126 127 127 125 136 137 140 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 53 54 56 55 58 59 58 58 58 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 29 27 25 23 20 18 18 17 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 60 48 35 32 21 12 9 6 7 3 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 4 -10 -9 -27 -16 -26 -18 -18 36 -15 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 9 15 14 4 2 -3 -5 -9 -9 -9 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 820 800 789 776 763 711 619 514 430 362 300 296 366 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.5 25.0 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.1 148.6 149.1 149.6 150.8 152.2 153.7 155.3 156.9 158.5 160.3 162.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 9 9 9 11 3 3 4 1 10 16 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -32. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -15. -16. -18. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -16. -22. -23. -28. -32. -33. -33. -33. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.6 147.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##