* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 44 46 47 48 47 48 48 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 44 46 47 48 47 48 48 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 25 26 28 31 34 35 36 37 38 38 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 20 18 14 7 11 18 19 21 24 20 15 15 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 315 336 350 356 345 259 255 260 259 253 254 274 293 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 148 146 146 139 137 130 124 124 122 119 116 115 114 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 129 127 128 123 119 112 105 104 101 98 95 94 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 45 47 52 56 55 49 45 41 40 40 40 38 39 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -45 -49 -31 -31 -51 -67 -70 -77 -71 -56 -28 -8 -15 -39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -35 -10 12 0 -6 1 -3 20 -1 -7 -29 -20 -26 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 -4 -6 2 3 9 2 1 -5 -1 -5 -2 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2320 2360 2400 2464 2478 2379 2297 2241 2204 2077 1982 1896 1823 1771 1714 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.7 25.4 26.0 27.4 28.9 30.3 31.3 31.9 32.1 32.1 32.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.1 43.3 43.0 42.8 41.5 39.8 38.1 36.5 35.0 33.8 32.8 32.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 25 27 27 27 13 11 8 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 18. 18. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 42.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.33 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 44 46 47 48 47 48 48 48 51 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 44 46 47 48 47 48 48 48 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 34 40 42 44 45 46 45 46 46 46 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 34 36 38 39 40 39 40 40 40 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT