* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 63 61 56 53 50 47 44 38 32 29 28 29 30 31 V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 63 61 56 53 50 47 44 38 32 29 28 29 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 68 64 60 54 49 45 41 38 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 20 22 20 21 21 16 23 17 28 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 13 10 6 2 4 7 2 8 0 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 264 260 253 257 254 284 280 287 286 298 301 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.3 27.2 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 126 128 129 129 130 128 128 127 126 135 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 52 53 54 59 57 55 56 58 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 31 31 29 29 26 25 24 20 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 83 73 72 62 33 31 25 19 28 15 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 31 18 6 17 2 -11 -4 -10 -6 -30 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 17 20 20 24 19 5 5 0 -8 -7 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 920 891 867 848 834 801 755 681 598 508 416 321 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.0 24.6 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.5 146.9 147.3 147.7 148.7 149.8 151.1 152.4 153.8 155.4 157.2 158.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 3 7 8 10 4 4 4 1 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -15. -18. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -32. -37. -41. -42. -41. -40. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.0 146.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##