* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 66 61 55 51 46 43 42 36 29 26 26 26 27 29 V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 66 61 55 51 46 43 42 36 29 26 26 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 75 74 71 67 63 54 48 42 37 35 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 23 19 25 28 24 21 21 27 29 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 10 16 8 1 2 2 6 -1 3 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 271 259 250 255 262 273 279 271 284 285 304 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.7 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 125 125 127 130 130 130 129 128 125 130 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 50 51 54 57 57 53 52 52 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 31 31 30 30 30 26 25 25 22 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 87 81 73 73 47 47 39 32 30 33 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 13 24 21 -2 -8 -18 -8 -9 -19 -14 -14 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 18 16 21 21 16 8 3 -5 -4 -9 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 956 931 910 889 873 832 784 718 643 550 460 375 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.4 24.1 24.5 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.7 146.0 146.3 146.7 147.0 147.9 149.0 150.2 151.5 152.9 154.4 156.1 157.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 2 7 9 10 4 4 2 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -24. -29. -32. -33. -39. -46. -49. -49. -49. -48. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.6 145.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##