* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 58 55 52 52 52 53 52 51 46 40 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 58 55 52 52 52 53 52 51 46 40 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 62 59 56 51 47 43 42 41 39 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 22 21 20 23 17 22 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 6 8 9 7 1 2 0 7 4 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 274 266 259 249 258 257 256 281 280 296 290 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 132 131 132 132 131 129 128 127 125 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 50 51 50 55 55 55 53 52 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 33 33 33 32 31 31 30 29 27 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 88 93 84 77 79 59 55 41 41 40 37 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 4 25 33 47 17 8 -1 -13 -14 -16 -37 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 17 21 22 21 14 9 7 -3 -4 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1004 978 955 940 928 892 855 821 777 719 658 602 559 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.3 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 145.5 145.7 145.9 146.1 146.8 147.7 148.7 149.7 150.6 151.4 152.2 152.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 4 4 6 7 8 8 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -18. -19. -24. -30. -29. -27. -24. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.8 145.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 11.9% 8.7% 6.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.0% 2.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##