* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 26 23 25 27 30 32 37 36 39 40 42 47 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 26 23 25 27 30 32 37 36 39 40 42 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 19 17 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 33 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 41 41 40 35 29 20 16 13 20 22 28 27 27 18 19 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 3 2 0 -1 -2 -5 -8 -9 -11 -6 -11 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 275 276 281 290 297 321 339 302 253 251 243 246 238 240 227 269 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 134 136 144 141 138 136 129 124 119 111 104 100 98 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 121 119 120 126 124 121 119 113 109 103 93 87 83 81 79 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -55.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 34 36 39 40 40 48 53 50 43 37 32 32 33 38 38 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 7 9 10 10 13 11 12 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -42 -44 -51 -51 -44 -35 -35 -26 -26 -21 -35 -28 -10 0 -2 -5 200 MB DIV -11 -23 -23 -15 -19 -32 7 -17 -3 -6 -10 -6 18 -7 -14 -2 -12 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -1 1 4 -1 5 -7 -2 -10 -8 -20 -12 -9 -5 -14 LAND (KM) 2243 2319 2384 2378 2374 2433 2534 2439 2329 2183 2030 1896 1831 1832 1848 1843 1819 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.5 24.5 25.8 27.2 28.6 29.9 31.4 33.1 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 39.4 40.2 40.8 41.5 42.2 41.8 40.5 38.9 36.9 34.7 32.3 30.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 8 9 11 11 13 11 7 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 16 15 16 21 22 12 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -5. -3. -0. 2. 7. 6. 9. 10. 12. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 38.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 26 23 25 27 30 32 37 36 39 40 42 47 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 26 23 25 27 30 32 37 36 39 40 42 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 24 21 23 25 28 30 35 34 37 38 40 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 16 18 20 23 25 30 29 32 33 35 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT