* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 31 30 28 30 34 38 42 46 48 49 53 55 59 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 31 30 28 30 34 38 42 46 48 49 53 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 26 24 24 27 31 35 38 40 42 46 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 39 39 38 33 23 17 8 15 25 25 24 18 18 10 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 5 2 2 -1 0 -4 -7 -9 -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 276 275 276 280 285 300 332 308 244 234 226 230 225 242 238 256 132 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 134 134 134 142 147 146 139 134 128 125 120 118 117 115 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 120 120 119 124 129 127 120 116 110 106 99 96 95 94 93 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -56.3 -56.5 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 36 34 36 39 39 41 49 51 46 42 38 31 29 28 28 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 10 12 13 15 15 14 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -52 -41 -41 -44 -35 -25 -16 -10 -28 -33 -48 -40 -19 3 12 4 200 MB DIV -8 -17 -29 -28 -23 -34 -3 -7 -12 -2 0 11 9 8 2 -27 -32 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 0 0 2 2 -2 2 -5 -6 -8 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 LAND (KM) 2162 2249 2335 2368 2344 2356 2457 2464 2352 2288 2226 2174 2142 2126 2112 2100 2090 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.7 24.9 26.3 27.7 28.9 30.2 31.4 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.8 39.6 40.4 41.2 42.2 42.5 42.3 41.4 40.0 38.6 37.4 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 7 7 8 9 8 7 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 16 16 20 26 27 12 8 6 4 2 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -5. -1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 18. 20. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 37.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 31 30 28 30 34 38 42 46 48 49 53 55 59 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 31 30 28 30 34 38 42 46 48 49 53 55 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 29 28 26 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 51 53 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 22 20 22 26 30 34 38 40 41 45 47 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT