* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 58 59 60 59 55 43 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 58 59 60 59 55 43 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 57 53 47 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 19 18 21 27 14 16 14 24 34 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 4 7 0 -5 0 0 1 6 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 307 276 235 201 169 198 213 211 246 244 245 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.3 24.1 23.0 21.4 18.6 17.0 14.3 13.1 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 117 112 107 105 94 77 63 64 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.1 -53.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 53 52 51 46 46 45 48 48 47 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 30 31 33 33 32 28 27 25 22 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 34 56 88 81 76 47 20 10 10 62 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 22 35 80 71 45 4 1 13 37 7 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 10 13 18 13 8 8 16 1 6 0 -8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 805 926 1048 1184 1320 1605 1877 1659 1360 1078 876 922 409 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.0 30.9 32.1 33.2 35.8 38.4 41.1 43.6 46.0 48.7 51.5 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 162.1 162.9 163.7 164.2 164.7 165.2 165.2 164.7 162.8 159.5 154.1 146.8 139.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 20 25 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -27. -33. -37. -41. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -22. -30. -39. -44. -50. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 1. -2. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -2. -3. -6. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -5. -17. -28. -41. -57. -72. -85. -97.-111.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.1 162.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##