* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 94 93 91 86 79 75 72 70 68 63 61 61 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 95 95 94 93 91 86 79 75 72 70 68 63 61 61 62 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 93 91 89 84 77 70 63 56 50 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 8 10 11 13 21 24 22 27 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 1 1 0 3 8 7 3 6 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 264 263 265 285 277 268 257 253 247 252 261 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.0 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 137 136 134 132 130 130 130 129 123 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 53 52 51 51 56 54 56 54 54 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 35 36 38 37 38 37 36 35 33 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 57 71 71 75 86 79 77 78 67 55 45 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -6 0 7 20 -5 48 27 44 28 11 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 1 1 2 11 18 31 28 24 18 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1193 1163 1134 1116 1098 1067 1041 1021 1007 997 990 993 1008 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.9 23.0 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.5 143.8 144.0 144.2 144.3 144.6 144.9 145.3 145.8 146.6 147.6 148.8 150.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 18 16 12 8 5 3 4 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -20. -23. -25. -27. -32. -34. -34. -33. -31. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.4 143.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 629.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 -0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 21.8% 15.1% 14.8% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 8.2% 5.4% 5.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##