* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 32 33 32 31 29 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 41 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 32 33 32 31 29 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 28 26 25 23 23 24 26 29 34 38 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 30 29 27 26 27 25 18 13 6 3 10 15 17 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -3 -2 2 1 5 2 2 -1 0 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 265 268 278 284 288 280 271 277 298 330 326 308 227 221 228 225 225 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 120 122 126 130 131 134 135 133 139 140 135 130 128 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 109 111 113 117 117 118 118 116 120 119 114 109 106 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 43 41 39 37 37 38 40 44 47 53 59 59 52 49 45 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -23 -32 -31 -23 -38 -34 -39 -41 -49 -26 -23 -42 -46 -43 -37 -35 200 MB DIV -19 -19 -7 -11 -16 -15 -8 -12 -15 -3 11 0 -13 1 0 4 4 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 4 0 2 2 1 4 7 2 5 -1 0 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1592 1672 1753 1834 1916 2080 2242 2372 2439 2502 2516 2398 2308 2233 2184 2142 2104 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.9 24.9 25.9 27.0 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.1 33.9 34.7 35.5 37.1 38.7 40.0 41.0 41.6 42.0 42.1 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 7 9 13 14 19 18 15 23 17 11 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 32.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 31 32 33 32 31 29 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 41 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 32 33 32 31 29 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 31 32 31 30 28 28 29 32 34 36 37 38 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 26 25 23 23 24 27 29 31 32 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT