* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 63 63 63 63 65 57 46 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 63 63 63 63 65 57 46 37 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 60 59 57 55 51 44 35 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 5 12 20 19 21 28 25 19 19 34 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 -7 2 1 3 0 -5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 179 217 307 329 290 226 178 172 204 251 236 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.6 24.6 23.9 23.4 22.2 20.2 16.7 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 129 128 125 120 119 109 102 97 85 64 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.8 -54.5 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 47 47 50 55 54 46 44 42 44 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 29 29 30 31 34 33 31 30 29 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 44 31 27 29 55 67 86 75 70 38 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 24 0 -27 4 34 80 103 14 11 23 14 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 13 7 12 11 3 16 8 7 8 20 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 494 540 609 692 783 960 1181 1440 1710 1808 1502 1188 869 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.4 29.0 30.3 32.2 34.5 37.0 39.7 42.4 45.1 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.7 158.8 159.8 160.8 161.7 163.0 163.7 164.3 164.5 164.4 163.7 162.2 160.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 11 12 13 14 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -26. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -14. -18. -23. -30. -34. -38. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. -3. -14. -23. -34. -51. -61. -70. -80. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.4 157.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##