* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 38 36 32 30 33 36 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 38 36 32 30 33 36 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 13 11 9 18 16 15 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 239 219 214 229 179 196 183 185 175 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 153 150 148 143 138 133 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 66 62 58 55 53 47 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 13 12 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 11 15 6 -12 5 12 11 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 38 55 74 71 39 17 23 27 34 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 4 4 4 -1 2 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1042 976 915 858 805 685 548 441 366 331 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 19.4 20.6 21.5 22.2 22.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.3 115.5 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.1 114.7 114.5 114.5 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 39 30 21 15 10 7 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.3% 17.0% 12.7% 0.0% 15.5% 13.5% 14.1% Logistic: 2.3% 9.6% 4.7% 2.3% 1.8% 3.2% 2.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.5% 7.3% 5.0% 0.6% 6.3% 5.4% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##