* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 61 63 66 64 64 63 62 59 52 47 39 32 26 20 17 V (KT) LAND 60 59 61 63 66 64 64 63 62 59 52 47 39 32 26 20 17 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 60 60 60 57 52 49 47 44 39 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 9 4 24 25 23 25 10 8 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -6 0 0 -5 0 3 2 0 -6 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 229 210 200 286 341 292 239 172 226 202 279 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.8 24.1 23.9 23.1 22.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 132 130 126 119 111 104 102 94 83 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 51 49 48 50 59 58 51 49 43 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 32 32 29 30 29 32 34 31 31 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 28 36 32 38 27 28 63 79 94 90 117 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 26 23 34 1 7 25 61 65 4 13 27 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 19 18 18 9 7 4 16 5 3 5 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 406 421 443 480 542 705 929 1157 1378 1615 1842 1807 1593 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 28.3 30.0 31.9 33.8 35.9 37.9 40.0 42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.7 157.7 158.7 159.7 161.6 163.0 163.9 164.6 165.2 165.8 166.3 166.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -14. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 1. 3. 2. 7. 9. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -8. -13. -21. -28. -34. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.7 155.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##