* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 58 60 61 63 64 64 63 59 51 41 35 29 23 20 V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 58 60 61 63 64 64 63 59 51 41 35 29 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 56 56 55 53 52 51 51 47 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 23 19 14 19 17 28 26 32 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -2 -2 5 -4 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 232 227 205 190 320 292 261 199 211 238 295 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.4 24.1 23.2 22.7 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 134 129 125 119 114 106 104 94 89 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 47 46 52 59 55 55 53 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 30 29 30 30 33 37 38 34 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 33 42 35 25 19 30 55 68 69 61 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 24 15 15 6 -2 22 30 60 45 4 -16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 15 11 15 16 5 13 15 10 14 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 393 421 450 508 676 870 1090 1297 1510 1736 1979 1798 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.2 26.8 28.1 29.5 31.2 32.9 34.7 36.6 38.6 40.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.4 156.4 157.3 158.3 159.3 161.3 162.8 164.0 164.9 165.7 166.6 167.7 168.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -21. -22. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 13. 9. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -9. -19. -25. -31. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.3 155.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##