* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 60 62 65 65 66 65 66 65 61 50 46 43 41 41 V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 60 62 65 65 66 65 66 65 61 50 46 43 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 59 59 58 56 54 54 54 54 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 22 21 5 14 21 14 25 13 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 -2 -7 0 -2 -1 5 -1 -2 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 220 218 224 203 250 332 289 238 180 235 142 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 26.5 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.3 24.0 23.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 136 137 129 125 118 114 106 103 93 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 56 57 56 58 62 60 52 52 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 28 29 31 32 32 32 32 35 36 36 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 30 37 43 46 33 40 76 93 111 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 25 50 30 29 4 14 26 69 70 41 -14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 10 8 15 16 17 13 10 17 8 14 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 374 400 416 445 510 662 861 1074 1303 1538 1764 1968 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.7 26.8 28.1 29.6 31.2 33.0 34.9 36.8 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.1 154.9 155.6 156.4 157.2 158.9 160.6 162.2 163.6 164.8 165.9 166.8 167.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 9 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -11. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 9. 10. 10. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -4. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.5 154.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##