* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 53 53 48 43 39 39 42 46 49 51 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 53 53 48 43 39 39 42 46 49 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 6 13 13 12 12 8 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 248 221 244 267 188 205 203 223 198 183 205 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 158 152 149 147 144 144 144 142 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 67 66 62 58 53 50 43 40 42 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 16 17 14 12 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 13 9 1 0 -9 -15 -11 3 7 8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 62 66 39 16 52 22 11 -1 8 14 32 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 3 2 4 0 -2 -5 -3 -5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1166 1133 1073 1010 951 832 714 598 494 416 387 377 373 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 17.3 18.7 19.9 20.8 21.4 21.6 21.7 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.8 114.2 114.6 114.9 115.3 115.2 114.8 114.4 114.0 113.8 113.8 113.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 72 52 40 35 19 12 9 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 23. 23. 18. 13. 9. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 113.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.52 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 24.1% 21.9% 16.3% 0.0% 19.6% 17.2% 18.1% Logistic: 7.2% 24.3% 14.3% 7.5% 5.1% 12.1% 13.2% 9.8% Bayesian: 1.9% 38.0% 16.7% 5.4% 2.4% 6.9% 3.6% 1.2% Consensus: 6.7% 28.8% 17.6% 9.7% 2.5% 12.9% 11.4% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##