* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 75 72 68 70 70 70 70 66 62 63 56 50 45 44 V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 75 72 68 70 70 70 70 66 62 63 56 50 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 79 75 71 65 61 57 56 54 53 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 26 23 21 23 15 11 17 23 32 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 5 0 -2 0 -2 3 0 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 232 233 221 219 222 223 292 282 246 236 221 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.4 26.0 25.5 24.4 23.9 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 136 135 133 133 127 123 118 107 102 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -52.4 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 60 58 59 59 61 60 68 66 70 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 27 28 28 28 30 29 29 31 32 34 43 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 35 38 33 52 45 43 30 30 78 105 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 23 30 36 28 24 24 -4 25 35 91 49 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 14 9 8 11 18 19 14 11 11 18 24 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 380 365 364 376 407 460 564 747 959 1208 1481 1742 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.3 28.8 30.5 32.6 35.0 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.9 152.7 153.4 154.2 154.9 156.5 158.1 159.7 161.1 162.3 163.2 163.9 164.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 16 11 8 7 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -9. -9. -11. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -13. -17. -15. -15. -15. -15. -19. -23. -22. -29. -35. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.9 151.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 519.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##