* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 111 109 109 111 117 118 124 126 134 138 138 141 142 139 V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 111 109 109 111 117 118 124 126 134 138 138 141 142 139 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 115 114 114 116 120 121 121 120 121 128 140 149 160 160 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 12 13 10 9 10 9 16 7 9 10 11 13 10 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 3 5 6 8 4 -2 -5 -6 -5 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 249 256 240 244 249 240 261 233 256 240 222 235 220 241 246 222 N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 30.2 30.3 30.3 29.7 29.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 158 160 161 164 162 159 157 156 158 165 166 168 163 163 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -49.1 -49.1 -48.6 -48.8 -48.4 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 52 50 50 48 50 46 49 47 50 46 48 44 47 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 24 23 25 26 29 29 33 34 39 43 45 51 53 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 1 -6 -18 -11 2 30 32 44 44 60 84 114 147 196 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 21 18 8 2 16 18 38 1 17 15 32 17 39 54 61 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 2 5 4 5 1 5 8 5 1 0 2 1 3 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1952 1972 1994 2019 2045 2120 2193 2285 2366 2436 2527 2627 2729 2879 2579 2411 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.1 179.4 179.6 179.8 180.1 180.8 181.5 182.4 183.2 183.9 184.8 185.8 186.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 10 11 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 38 32 29 29 34 35 39 40 37 34 36 35 33 29 37 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -36. -35. -34. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 17. 19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 8. 8. 14. 15. 21. 24. 24. 26. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. 2. 3. 9. 11. 19. 23. 23. 26. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.1 179.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 838.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 2.8% 2.7% 6.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##