* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 135 133 130 123 114 109 104 99 98 93 95 93 95 93 93 V (KT) LAND 130 133 135 133 130 123 114 109 104 99 98 93 95 93 95 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 130 132 131 127 123 115 107 97 87 79 74 73 75 79 81 81 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 3 3 4 4 7 12 8 8 9 11 8 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 6 6 10 10 8 9 5 4 1 2 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 4 5 6 355 62 2 13 319 312 300 274 250 249 276 247 274 264 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 152 153 145 138 134 132 131 131 131 132 130 127 125 127 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 58 54 55 58 59 61 64 66 66 64 62 64 63 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 38 37 36 38 38 38 38 38 40 39 42 41 45 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 65 72 61 47 49 46 48 46 52 57 79 85 105 99 118 99 114 200 MB DIV 56 32 45 52 42 4 18 20 40 4 17 -2 46 5 32 16 12 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 1 9 8 8 11 9 8 9 6 8 12 20 16 LAND (KM) 2253 2334 2203 2080 1956 1765 1618 1495 1395 1314 1247 1192 1151 1134 1101 1068 1042 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.1 134.4 135.5 136.6 138.3 139.6 140.7 141.6 142.3 142.9 143.4 143.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 25 26 46 27 20 9 6 5 5 5 6 4 2 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -25. -37. -46. -54. -61. -64. -66. -67. -69. -72. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 8. 6. 10. 8. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. -0. -7. -16. -21. -26. -31. -32. -37. -35. -37. -35. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.9 131.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 886.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 5.4% 5.8% 5.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 3.4% 2.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 21 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##