* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 68 71 71 67 61 54 48 41 37 33 31 30 35 37 38 V (KT) LAND 60 65 68 71 71 67 61 54 48 41 37 33 31 30 35 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 69 70 69 64 58 53 48 44 41 40 39 41 43 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 6 11 16 22 23 25 25 20 20 18 17 19 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 9 8 6 5 2 0 2 3 3 5 1 4 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 313 234 242 242 235 241 246 245 248 254 259 271 270 271 253 247 245 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.4 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 121 118 116 113 111 109 108 113 114 116 122 125 125 125 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 122 116 111 109 105 102 100 99 103 103 104 108 111 110 109 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 58 54 53 48 44 44 41 39 38 39 38 38 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 21 21 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 8 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 70 52 43 41 37 22 12 -5 -2 -35 -38 -53 -34 -25 9 11 14 200 MB DIV 32 45 54 60 56 14 -19 -10 -17 -4 -18 -11 -26 -11 5 2 -12 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -6 -5 1 10 15 17 9 13 9 4 5 2 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 473 580 695 806 919 1117 1281 1447 1639 1834 2019 2191 2354 2338 2277 2228 2182 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.7 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.9 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.6 27.4 29.2 30.9 32.8 34.7 36.5 38.2 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 12 14 10 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -21. -24. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 11. 7. 1. -6. -12. -19. -23. -27. -29. -30. -25. -23. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.9 21.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.89 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.0% 42.4% 33.4% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 23.1% 20.7% 18.9% 5.0% 8.9% 2.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 10.7% 8.1% 8.7% 1.1% 2.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 24.6% 20.9% 14.6% 2.5% 3.7% 0.9% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 68 71 71 67 61 54 48 41 37 33 31 30 35 37 38 18HR AGO 60 59 62 65 65 61 55 48 42 35 31 27 25 24 29 31 32 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 59 55 49 42 36 29 25 21 19 18 23 25 26 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 46 40 33 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT