* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 103 102 101 99 102 107 113 114 117 122 122 125 129 131 131 V (KT) LAND 110 105 103 102 101 99 102 107 113 114 117 122 122 125 129 131 131 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 104 103 102 101 104 105 108 110 113 113 117 129 144 152 151 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 15 14 13 11 8 9 12 12 13 10 11 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 4 3 3 1 4 0 -4 -8 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 252 260 261 248 250 254 239 255 244 248 240 255 231 224 236 218 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 159 158 152 149 148 147 146 148 148 150 157 158 157 157 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -48.5 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 56 53 51 49 47 46 45 46 47 49 48 47 48 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 23 22 23 25 26 29 29 31 35 35 40 44 48 49 850 MB ENV VOR 1 10 19 11 2 -8 -15 -8 0 14 31 47 50 59 97 112 133 200 MB DIV 7 19 11 20 24 11 17 17 6 28 27 -9 -1 23 40 97 25 700-850 TADV 6 4 -3 -1 4 6 6 3 2 5 2 3 2 4 3 0 5 LAND (KM) 1840 1878 1918 1945 1975 2034 2100 2154 2226 2298 2389 2489 2590 2713 2794 2641 2510 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.0 23.4 24.3 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 177.7 178.2 178.7 179.0 179.4 180.0 180.6 181.1 181.8 182.5 183.4 184.4 185.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 9 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 43 40 33 23 22 25 27 29 33 28 26 27 28 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -19. -26. -31. -34. -36. -36. -36. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -3. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 17. 19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 10. 12. 17. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -8. -3. 3. 4. 7. 12. 12. 15. 19. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.2 177.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##