* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 114 114 114 111 110 114 110 109 107 105 106 107 105 104 102 V (KT) LAND 115 114 114 114 114 111 110 114 110 109 107 105 106 107 105 104 102 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 112 110 108 106 105 99 92 85 81 78 79 82 84 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 9 7 7 5 8 12 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 3 3 2 5 9 9 6 9 4 5 2 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 355 356 336 345 350 356 357 3 322 311 300 297 297 279 276 268 264 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 154 157 157 153 147 140 134 133 133 133 133 133 131 127 126 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 -50.4 -49.8 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 58 59 58 61 64 64 66 65 64 62 64 63 62 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 35 36 38 38 41 38 40 40 40 42 44 43 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 51 59 68 74 61 57 57 61 55 61 71 95 102 113 116 126 125 200 MB DIV 69 74 68 50 41 63 5 18 12 38 14 24 10 39 13 37 8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 0 -4 3 9 10 8 6 8 6 6 9 15 15 12 LAND (KM) 2113 2168 2229 2304 2245 2000 1801 1635 1501 1400 1311 1233 1153 1098 1069 1048 1033 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.2 131.4 132.7 134.0 136.2 138.0 139.5 140.7 141.6 142.4 143.1 143.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 28 23 26 26 39 31 20 9 7 7 7 8 8 5 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -15. -24. -32. -38. -43. -46. -47. -48. -50. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 10. 13. 13. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -1. -5. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -10. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.0 129.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 660.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 -0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.9% 15.3% 14.8% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 9.7% 6.3% 5.0% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 11.0% 7.3% 6.6% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##