* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 112 103 96 88 78 70 68 67 66 66 65 64 62 61 62 66 V (KT) LAND 120 112 103 96 88 78 70 68 67 66 66 65 64 62 61 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 120 114 107 100 94 83 74 67 62 59 56 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 17 21 24 26 23 22 20 19 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 8 6 6 0 2 1 3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 249 234 232 233 216 227 222 240 222 231 279 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 138 140 144 142 138 139 138 137 133 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 62 61 61 60 61 59 60 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 26 24 24 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 45 53 57 47 40 48 67 61 60 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 23 42 39 26 40 29 3 47 26 13 24 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 10 6 10 7 8 11 16 15 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 714 633 557 486 422 336 302 284 322 373 477 625 797 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.2 24.3 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.2 148.9 149.5 150.2 150.8 152.1 153.5 155.0 156.6 158.2 159.9 161.4 163.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 18 13 15 22 13 9 13 11 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -24. -33. -40. -47. -52. -55. -56. -57. -58. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -13. -11. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -24. -32. -42. -50. -52. -53. -54. -54. -55. -56. -58. -59. -58. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 18.0 148.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 694.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##