* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 121 117 109 103 89 80 79 76 78 75 74 72 70 69 70 72 V (KT) LAND 125 121 117 109 103 89 80 79 76 78 75 74 72 70 69 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 114 108 101 89 79 72 67 65 62 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 20 23 18 19 20 15 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 3 6 6 6 0 3 3 3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 261 246 239 233 228 218 213 220 227 213 243 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 140 145 143 142 144 137 137 140 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 59 59 60 58 61 60 64 63 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 27 24 26 26 26 28 26 28 27 28 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 39 43 50 59 47 52 60 75 80 69 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 6 24 39 30 11 18 23 17 39 30 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 4 10 2 9 7 8 9 11 21 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 795 704 616 531 450 303 229 200 234 270 341 476 636 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.7 148.4 149.1 149.8 150.5 152.0 153.5 155.0 156.5 158.0 159.5 161.0 162.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 33 32 20 16 24 20 15 19 13 9 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -36. -43. -50. -56. -58. -59. -60. -61. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -14. -11. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -1. 1. -0. 0. 3. 1. 4. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -16. -22. -36. -45. -46. -49. -47. -50. -51. -53. -55. -56. -55. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 17.1 147.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 744.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##