* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 127 130 126 121 118 114 118 120 122 123 124 122 124 125 128 V (KT) LAND 115 124 127 130 126 121 118 114 118 120 122 123 124 122 124 125 128 V (KT) LGEM 115 125 130 131 130 126 122 120 119 118 118 118 118 117 126 136 138 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 10 8 6 5 9 9 12 8 13 3 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -2 0 2 0 -1 4 4 -1 0 0 1 0 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 250 249 245 245 240 255 259 268 218 243 251 263 249 241 218 124 227 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.0 27.0 29.4 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 158 156 155 155 150 145 147 146 142 142 134 160 152 150 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -50.1 -49.8 -50.2 -49.4 -49.6 -49.4 -49.7 -49.4 -49.4 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 53 53 50 53 50 51 48 50 47 49 50 46 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 26 25 27 28 27 32 34 35 38 41 42 45 45 49 850 MB ENV VOR 23 23 13 12 15 -1 -4 -19 2 4 34 37 67 54 96 107 141 200 MB DIV 4 4 -30 -15 24 12 29 25 8 0 51 28 26 -21 22 13 95 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 4 2 6 3 4 5 3 6 4 1 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1666 1725 1786 1830 1877 1931 1974 2013 2066 2149 2242 2343 2445 2447 2852 2763 2593 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.1 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 175.7 176.4 177.1 177.7 178.2 178.9 179.4 179.8 180.3 181.1 182.0 183.0 184.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 9 13 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 43 42 41 40 31 22 18 23 26 26 26 13 25 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -29. -34. -39. -41. -41. -42. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 12. 11. 6. 2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. 20. 22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 3. 2. 4. 6. 7. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. 21. 22. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 12. 15. 11. 6. 3. -1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 9. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.1 175.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 802.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 57.3% 24.5% 39.7% 43.2% 64.2% 51.0% 56.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.2% 7.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##