* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 119 124 125 127 126 122 115 114 112 108 104 100 99 98 99 V (KT) LAND 105 113 119 124 125 127 126 122 115 114 112 108 104 100 99 98 99 V (KT) LGEM 105 114 120 124 127 128 126 118 109 103 97 93 90 88 88 88 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 6 5 6 8 8 11 11 10 12 8 9 13 6 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 0 4 7 7 8 3 4 6 4 1 SHEAR DIR 21 48 22 12 7 23 6 358 5 38 51 25 10 354 358 274 246 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 157 157 155 153 150 145 143 144 141 138 137 137 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 -49.9 -50.6 -50.1 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 60 58 55 53 55 55 55 55 56 59 62 65 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 30 29 32 35 38 37 40 41 42 43 44 46 45 47 850 MB ENV VOR 21 36 48 57 62 74 84 79 79 76 86 88 93 112 142 138 145 200 MB DIV 95 96 102 108 105 72 72 31 34 12 31 1 26 14 39 19 44 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -7 -2 6 4 4 2 1 3 5 6 6 LAND (KM) 1828 1879 1933 1979 2029 2125 2238 2229 1993 1794 1641 1531 1452 1395 1337 1279 1224 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.6 125.5 126.5 127.4 129.4 131.7 134.1 136.2 138.0 139.4 140.4 141.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 31 32 35 33 20 13 27 28 24 15 11 10 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -17. -23. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 15. 19. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 20. 22. 21. 18. 10. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -6. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.4 123.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.0% 42.2% 41.2% 41.0% 30.6% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 34.3% 30.8% 29.8% 24.5% 27.7% 14.6% 17.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 80.0% 73.3% 79.8% 73.4% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 52.4% 48.7% 50.2% 46.3% 30.0% 12.6% 5.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##