* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 83 85 89 91 92 90 90 86 83 79 79 78 78 79 81 V (KT) LAND 80 81 83 85 89 91 92 90 90 86 83 79 79 78 78 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 84 87 90 94 95 91 85 79 72 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 3 5 5 8 14 17 22 23 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -3 -4 -5 -2 1 1 3 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 84 65 7 334 276 228 241 231 218 223 223 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 147 141 145 143 144 142 137 139 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 62 61 58 60 62 63 62 60 57 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 24 27 25 27 27 29 29 29 28 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 46 50 50 53 59 74 87 86 74 89 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 30 26 15 24 9 19 23 44 44 25 30 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 3 0 1 7 13 15 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1261 1164 1067 973 879 691 526 355 210 153 136 195 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.9 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.0 145.8 146.6 147.3 148.8 150.1 151.5 152.8 154.0 155.3 156.5 157.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 24 26 30 33 28 34 25 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 4. 8. 8. 8. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 10. 10. 6. 3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.4 144.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.3% 11.6% 5.9% 4.3% 4.9% 2.4% 1.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 10.7% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##