* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 69 76 83 92 96 100 100 101 105 104 106 109 112 114 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 69 76 83 92 96 100 100 101 105 104 106 109 112 114 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 68 72 84 96 106 112 111 110 113 116 122 124 126 130 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 9 5 7 6 6 8 10 9 10 12 14 10 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 7 SHEAR DIR 239 231 245 258 240 215 217 190 196 207 248 210 204 208 245 220 137 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 160 158 152 151 152 152 148 145 145 151 149 147 145 144 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 56 51 55 54 57 57 56 51 49 49 49 51 51 51 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 20 20 24 26 28 28 29 32 32 35 38 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 25 33 34 32 25 24 5 -4 10 13 24 51 70 97 109 200 MB DIV 5 2 -8 -8 -1 15 16 32 13 14 -9 17 16 44 2 12 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -4 -2 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1252 1323 1394 1468 1542 1677 1766 1847 1906 1952 1995 2052 2114 2088 2118 2139 2140 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.7 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.3 172.1 172.8 173.6 174.4 175.9 177.0 178.0 178.7 179.2 179.6 180.1 180.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 2 5 3 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 59 58 51 39 38 41 37 22 17 18 27 22 24 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 16. 17. 20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 2. 1. 6. 9. 13. 14. 15. 17. 16. 18. 19. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 32. 36. 40. 40. 41. 45. 44. 46. 49. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 171.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 9.0% 19.6% 15.4% 9.9% 14.7% 17.5% 21.5% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 17.8% 1.0% 0.5% 2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 1.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##