* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 40 39 40 43 50 57 65 66 69 72 74 72 74 73 V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 33 35 36 39 47 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 36 33 36 34 35 38 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 29 28 26 22 11 8 9 12 13 20 16 19 24 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 1 0 -6 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -7 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 282 281 277 286 297 302 309 227 221 217 237 242 260 239 250 239 253 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.5 30.1 29.2 29.8 30.9 30.6 30.6 31.1 30.9 30.8 31.4 31.4 31.2 30.8 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 162 174 157 166 171 171 170 170 169 169 168 168 167 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 161 173 152 156 171 162 157 165 159 155 163 161 154 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 8 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 55 56 63 63 61 59 59 55 54 54 56 55 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 8 9 9 11 13 15 13 12 12 11 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -3 -19 -43 -43 -65 -36 -37 -7 -13 6 -5 9 7 26 22 200 MB DIV 20 6 -8 12 12 33 31 38 26 59 5 31 16 21 19 16 15 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -11 -12 -1 -9 -1 0 2 0 2 0 2 -2 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 64 -3 -78 0 40 59 113 101 -32 -54 -69 -75 -78 -80 -93 -95 -121 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.6 26.7 27.8 28.9 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.9 71.4 72.9 74.4 77.0 78.7 80.0 80.9 81.4 81.7 81.9 82.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 12 9 8 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 48 58 54 48 80 75 47 34 15 16 14 8 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -4. -3. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -2. 5. 13. 20. 21. 24. 27. 29. 27. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.6 68.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.5% 6.7% 4.9% 4.0% 6.6% 8.8% 13.2% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.8% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 3.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 2.4% 3.5% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 35 33 35 36 39 47 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 39 37 39 40 43 51 46 37 33 31 31 31 31 31 31 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 41 42 45 53 48 39 35 33 33 33 33 33 33 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 41 49 44 35 31 29 29 29 29 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT