* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 64 66 71 76 80 85 88 89 95 95 97 102 106 109 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 64 66 71 76 80 85 88 89 95 95 97 102 106 109 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 63 64 70 77 85 91 95 98 103 107 111 118 122 120 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 8 8 6 8 9 10 10 9 12 4 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 4 2 0 -2 -2 -7 0 5 14 11 SHEAR DIR 249 245 225 227 233 256 208 217 160 207 209 232 207 225 219 287 300 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 156 161 158 151 151 153 151 148 143 142 149 147 146 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -49.9 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 56 55 58 59 57 57 56 52 53 50 47 45 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 18 19 21 23 25 27 27 31 31 32 36 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 30 30 29 38 30 12 15 7 0 20 29 41 72 88 116 200 MB DIV 18 -4 4 0 5 2 21 5 36 7 5 -8 5 -22 -2 6 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 1 2 2 3 3 1 0 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 1096 1158 1219 1286 1353 1490 1616 1722 1792 1833 1884 1931 1985 1954 2024 2034 2014 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.8 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 169.5 170.1 170.7 171.4 172.1 173.6 175.1 176.4 177.3 177.9 178.5 179.0 179.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 2 5 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 55 54 51 49 53 61 46 37 39 42 35 21 15 15 22 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. 18. 21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 11. 17. 15. 14. 16. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 25. 28. 29. 35. 35. 37. 42. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.2 169.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.6% 4.5% 2.7% 3.2% 6.1% 6.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##