* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 41 40 38 38 40 44 49 52 57 61 62 63 64 62 V (KT) LAND 45 45 38 34 36 34 34 37 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 39 35 37 34 32 33 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 30 31 30 29 22 20 11 20 16 23 21 25 20 24 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 2 1 2 -1 -5 -1 -1 -5 -3 -5 -6 -4 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 279 281 279 277 281 296 301 256 240 228 238 238 251 252 256 254 263 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.3 30.1 30.8 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 157 164 158 172 171 170 170 170 169 168 168 168 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 149 153 159 149 160 169 156 154 148 141 147 145 141 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 54 55 57 64 65 62 62 57 58 54 60 57 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 11 12 13 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -16 -11 -22 -29 -50 -60 -45 -40 -25 -27 -5 -15 14 4 23 -5 200 MB DIV 32 4 2 -5 20 21 28 31 19 21 23 24 25 34 38 49 30 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -7 -9 -6 -9 -1 -4 6 -1 4 4 1 4 0 3 LAND (KM) 57 27 -25 -22 46 93 144 174 16 -63 -68 -51 -34 -20 -7 -11 -39 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.5 25.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.9 68.3 69.7 71.1 72.5 75.1 77.2 78.9 80.1 80.7 81.2 81.4 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 60 54 49 77 58 76 52 44 36 38 47 49 49 45 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -1. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 18. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.6% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6% 0.6% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 38 34 36 34 34 37 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 37 33 35 33 33 36 40 31 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 39 37 37 40 44 35 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 35 35 38 42 33 30 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT