* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 63 72 89 101 106 109 111 111 108 108 105 102 100 99 V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 63 72 89 101 106 109 111 111 108 108 105 102 100 99 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 58 66 84 103 118 126 125 120 114 108 103 101 98 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 9 11 5 6 7 9 5 5 7 7 5 8 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 8 3 6 5 SHEAR DIR 317 326 330 350 11 41 58 30 15 7 38 19 29 42 11 4 327 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 161 160 160 157 149 151 147 144 141 140 138 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 69 69 67 65 60 57 54 56 56 56 56 56 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 20 22 24 27 30 32 33 36 37 37 38 41 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -3 1 7 28 54 70 74 83 80 72 68 69 67 83 96 200 MB DIV 40 54 62 63 45 90 94 117 97 77 67 59 33 25 28 35 -2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 0 2 4 1 5 6 LAND (KM) 1379 1437 1505 1578 1637 1780 1932 2072 2178 2277 2248 2021 1827 1689 1586 1518 1451 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.4 119.6 120.7 121.9 124.1 126.1 128.0 129.9 131.9 134.0 136.0 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 10 10 7 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 27 30 33 27 28 31 21 20 16 21 26 24 23 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 26. 29. 28. 29. 27. 24. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 32. 49. 61. 66. 69. 71. 71. 68. 68. 65. 62. 60. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.5 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 48.4% 33.1% 23.4% 15.7% 42.0% 55.2% 61.1% Logistic: 42.4% 74.6% 60.7% 47.5% 56.0% 50.3% 54.1% 35.7% Bayesian: 13.1% 80.9% 65.1% 34.9% 33.7% 71.6% 66.0% 7.3% Consensus: 23.7% 68.0% 53.0% 35.3% 35.1% 54.6% 58.4% 34.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##