* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 92 96 99 103 104 102 102 100 96 96 90 90 90 89 88 V (KT) LAND 80 86 92 96 99 103 104 102 102 100 96 96 90 90 90 79 88 V (KT) LGEM 80 86 91 94 97 100 103 105 103 101 97 93 89 86 85 77 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 9 9 13 6 5 8 4 12 9 17 18 13 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 8 3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -6 -3 0 0 0 -7 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 106 108 76 80 77 80 120 142 245 274 238 222 220 222 252 263 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 149 147 144 142 140 143 144 146 143 142 141 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 68 68 67 62 59 58 58 58 60 58 54 53 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 23 24 26 26 29 30 29 31 28 30 31 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 60 56 50 55 52 45 45 52 61 65 65 76 82 92 116 200 MB DIV 52 55 58 60 49 18 3 16 -14 34 20 54 33 59 27 48 52 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 1 0 0 6 10 10 6 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1853 1734 1614 1498 1381 1188 1005 851 694 532 367 208 88 50 5 -7 10 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.0 141.0 142.0 142.9 144.5 146.0 147.3 148.6 150.0 151.4 152.8 154.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 15 20 25 24 26 31 30 28 33 29 19 14 11 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 13. 15. 14. 15. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 19. 23. 24. 22. 22. 20. 16. 16. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 12.6 139.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.3% 37.8% 27.7% 20.8% 15.3% 17.9% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 37.4% 46.8% 31.3% 27.7% 9.0% 5.3% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 26.8% 56.9% 37.1% 22.6% 6.8% 16.0% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 31.1% 47.2% 32.0% 23.7% 10.4% 13.0% 5.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##