* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 89 94 99 104 103 102 99 98 95 91 87 86 84 84 85 V (KT) LAND 75 82 89 94 99 104 103 102 99 98 95 91 87 86 84 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 94 97 102 105 107 106 103 100 95 90 84 83 84 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 10 11 5 3 5 12 13 21 14 10 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 7 7 2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 0 3 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 99 101 92 86 84 67 100 114 209 277 241 256 226 228 278 314 262 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 149 149 149 148 146 144 141 142 145 146 145 144 145 140 139 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 69 70 69 65 59 55 54 56 59 57 58 55 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 19 21 23 23 25 26 28 28 28 27 28 27 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 59 63 62 53 60 54 55 56 68 81 86 91 86 94 113 200 MB DIV 77 52 50 55 57 17 16 3 3 -2 11 33 6 26 -4 34 28 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 5 4 11 4 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 1975 1861 1746 1631 1517 1304 1115 937 764 587 411 227 72 3 19 9 58 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.9 138.9 139.8 140.8 141.7 143.5 145.1 146.6 148.1 149.6 151.1 152.7 154.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 13 12 12 14 26 23 25 27 34 28 36 34 23 20 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. 10. 8. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 24. 29. 28. 27. 24. 23. 20. 16. 12. 11. 9. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 12.3 137.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.2% 45.7% 32.5% 25.4% 17.9% 19.8% 14.6% 12.1% Logistic: 51.1% 63.8% 47.2% 45.1% 21.7% 16.7% 1.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 44.1% 67.6% 50.6% 42.5% 17.7% 37.6% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 45.5% 59.0% 43.4% 37.7% 19.1% 24.7% 6.2% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##