* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 64 72 77 78 79 81 86 89 91 91 97 99 105 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 64 72 77 78 79 81 86 89 91 91 97 99 105 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 61 68 74 79 83 86 90 94 97 98 103 111 122 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 14 11 11 11 9 6 8 4 9 8 17 7 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 2 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 264 271 272 267 239 225 243 242 217 206 250 229 243 218 256 259 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 152 157 155 152 152 157 158 157 147 150 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.3 -50.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 59 60 59 60 63 64 65 66 61 57 57 54 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 24 26 28 29 29 33 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -24 -8 -1 13 26 28 22 16 5 8 -8 -2 8 44 50 72 200 MB DIV 1 0 0 7 12 13 11 8 20 22 67 2 29 16 23 -1 -21 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 3 3 5 5 4 6 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 914 945 977 1019 1062 1190 1320 1436 1528 1599 1660 1705 1758 1724 1839 1881 1943 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.9 21.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.3 168.5 168.9 169.3 170.6 172.0 173.3 174.4 175.3 176.1 176.7 177.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 52 54 56 54 56 53 40 39 50 51 37 21 24 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 13. 15. 17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 19. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 27. 32. 33. 34. 36. 41. 44. 46. 46. 52. 54. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 168.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.7% 9.6% 4.9% 3.1% 3.6% 11.0% 34.0% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.5% 0.5% 0.2% 3.8% 1.0% 1.9% 87.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##