* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 46 45 45 48 53 58 67 73 80 78 78 70 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 48 46 45 45 48 53 58 67 73 80 78 78 70 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 49 47 44 42 42 45 52 62 74 80 81 78 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 22 26 26 28 17 16 7 15 14 17 17 20 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 2 3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 0 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 273 295 295 284 285 284 280 300 297 270 251 237 237 231 252 238 269 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.5 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 149 147 147 153 156 157 164 171 170 170 164 160 159 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 146 143 142 146 147 145 150 160 156 147 139 134 130 128 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 50 51 53 56 58 60 64 63 64 60 63 60 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 11 12 13 18 21 25 24 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -35 -36 -41 -45 -45 -70 -86 -83 -56 -60 -16 -15 4 -11 -3 -9 200 MB DIV 15 7 26 31 34 17 14 10 33 30 42 47 46 73 51 77 28 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -9 -14 -5 0 -8 -3 -5 0 0 6 8 22 22 17 10 LAND (KM) 545 387 229 81 67 114 200 260 300 297 168 141 157 216 218 186 145 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.2 26.4 27.7 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.8 62.2 63.6 65.0 66.3 69.1 71.5 73.7 75.7 77.3 78.4 78.9 79.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 14 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 44 45 60 82 55 62 63 63 58 54 48 46 48 45 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -2. 2. 6. 4. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. 3. 8. 13. 22. 28. 35. 33. 33. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 60.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.1% 9.5% 6.9% 6.2% 8.3% 0.0% 8.9% Logistic: 4.4% 8.3% 3.7% 3.1% 2.1% 9.1% 9.7% 19.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 9.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 4.3% 11.1% 5.0% 3.4% 2.8% 6.1% 3.3% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 48 48 46 45 45 48 53 58 67 73 80 78 78 70 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 43 42 42 45 50 55 64 70 77 75 75 67 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 39 38 38 41 46 51 60 66 73 71 71 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 32 32 35 40 45 54 60 67 65 65 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT