* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 60 67 71 72 73 75 80 82 84 90 92 97 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 52 60 67 71 72 73 75 80 82 84 90 92 97 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 55 61 65 69 71 75 80 85 89 95 104 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 12 13 10 11 8 9 7 12 8 11 13 6 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 237 244 246 260 273 275 280 275 303 277 276 237 250 243 259 235 297 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 150 151 154 156 154 150 150 153 154 153 153 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 57 59 62 60 61 65 68 68 67 61 61 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 13 14 15 16 16 16 15 16 19 20 21 25 25 29 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -41 -33 -18 -3 11 16 16 15 8 1 14 1 10 17 34 37 200 MB DIV 20 11 9 9 7 19 18 6 8 24 21 59 28 30 4 18 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 1 4 5 4 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 856 885 914 950 986 1076 1190 1310 1412 1505 1599 1685 1773 1679 1734 1760 1798 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.6 167.8 168.0 168.3 168.6 169.4 170.6 171.9 173.1 174.2 175.3 176.3 177.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 50 52 55 61 54 46 46 38 34 41 46 42 44 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 32. 36. 37. 38. 40. 45. 47. 49. 55. 57. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.4 167.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 10.9% 20.6% 12.6% 7.0% 7.1% 10.4% 28.4% 23.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 3.2% 9.6% 29.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##